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Verification register Energy, Climate, Space & Materials

Readiness verdict

Spiritus Carbon Orchard DAC

A dated reading of what is claimed, reported, and independently verified in the current evidence.

As of
2026-08-20
Revision
1
Method
v1.3.0

Current reading

Readiness band and full integer triple

AI-assisted assembly · derived results

Readiness band

Watch

Primary summary from verified readiness

Confidence
78% · stale
Computed at
2026-08-20T10:54:41.922717+00:00
Claimed
40

Public ambition and stated capability

Reported
40

Observed practitioner reporting

Verified
36

Independently supported evidence

Gap
+4

Claimed leads verified

Evidence strength Strong

Decision

What the current evidence supports

Human editorial judgment · 2026-08-20

Too early to adopt

Why
Compelling thesis and credible backers (Khosla, Aramco Ventures, Mitsubishi Heavy, TDK; Frontier/Stripe/Alphabet/Shopify/Meta pre-purchases) but the headline numbers are forward-looking marketing — the validating pilot has not yet operated and the gap from a 1,000 t/yr pilot to a 2 Mt/yr facility is ~2,000x.
Next
Wait for the early-2026 New Mexico 1,000 t/yr pilot to publish independently verified capture rate, sorbent durability, energy/ton and cost/ton before giving any weight to the Orchard One megaton + $100/ton claims

Constraints

Blockers

No named blocker is present in the current public projection.

Evidence summary

Derived counts

AI-assisted assembly

Total
12
Tier 1
0
Tier 2
8
Tier 3
4
Supports
6
Contradicts
2
Context
4
Latest observed
2025-11-12

Counts and dates only. Raw signals, private excerpts, trust records, and internal corpus material are not published here.

Publication record

Revisions

Initial public reading

  1. 2026-07-19 Reading moved from watch to watch.

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