Verification register Energy, Climate, Space & Materials
Current reading
Readiness band and full integer triple
AI-assisted assembly · derived results
Readiness band
Watch
Primary summary from verified readiness
- Confidence
- 85% · fresh
- Computed at
- 2026-10-21T06:32:38.062283+00:00
- Claimed
- 45
- Reported
- 45
- Verified
- 41
- Gap
- +4
Public ambition and stated capability
Observed practitioner reporting
Independently supported evidence
Claimed leads verified
Evidence strength Critical
Decision
What the current evidence supports
Human editorial judgment · 2026-10-21
Track; not yet
- Why
- MMX launched successfully on 20 Oct 2026 JST. JAXA confirmed spacecraft separation 71 min 13 s after liftoff and injection into the planned orbit. The rover has completed vibration and thermal qualification (-170 to +70 C) and autonomy field tests. The mission's value (Phobos landing, 10 g or more of sample, 2031 return) is still 2 to 5 years out. It has already slipped once, and the sources disagree on landing dates. It is a high-confidence tracking item, not something to build on.
- Next
- Check Mars-orbit insertion (Aug 2027) and Phobos quasi-satellite orbit entry (about Sep 2027). Then track the Idefix release (around the turn of 2028/2029 per DLR, early 2029 per ESA) and landing date (2029 per DLR) and the Phobos sampling attempt (2030). Re-check the H3 flight record as well.
Constraints
Blockers
No named blocker is present in the current public projection.
Evidence summary
Derived counts
AI-assisted assembly
- Total
- 8
- Tier 1
- 7
- Tier 2
- 0
- Tier 3
- 1
- Supports
- 4
- Contradicts
- 2
- Context
- 2
- Latest observed
- 2026-10-20
Counts and dates only. Raw signals, private excerpts, trust records, and internal corpus material are not published here.
Publication record
Revisions
Initial public reading
- 2026-10-21 Initial recorded band: watch.