Verification register Frontier Hardware & Quantum
Current reading
Readiness band and full integer triple
AI-assisted assembly · derived results
Readiness band
Emerging
Primary summary from verified readiness
- Confidence
- 72% · fresh
- Computed at
- 2026-10-21T06:32:42.139416+00:00
- Claimed
- 30
- Reported
- 28
- Verified
- 25
- Gap
- +5
Public ambition and stated capability
Observed practitioner reporting
Independently supported evidence
Claimed leads verified
Evidence strength Critical
Decision
What the current evidence supports
Human editorial judgment · 2026-10-21
Track; not yet
- Why
- Peer-reviewed hardware evidence (Science) shows the 2024 cultivation theory works physically, with a 40x error cut and 99.99% T-state fidelity, which lowers projected magic-state overhead (estimated at up to 95% of machine capacity under distillation). But yield is about 8%, the demo used a small part of the chip, a storage test missed simulation by ~7x, and the fidelity is a bounded estimate from a self-referential benchmark with no independent replication yet.
- Next
- Watch for an independent replication, a scaled cultivation demo on larger distance or more qubits, and any move of the RSA-2048 resource estimate; re-evaluate when cultivated-state error approaches 1e-6 or better at scale
Constraints
Blockers
No named blocker is present in the current public projection.
Evidence summary
Derived counts
AI-assisted assembly
- Total
- 6
- Tier 1
- 2
- Tier 2
- 4
- Tier 3
- 0
- Supports
- 1
- Contradicts
- 2
- Context
- 3
- Latest observed
- 2026-10-16
Counts and dates only. Raw signals, private excerpts, trust records, and internal corpus material are not published here.
Publication record
Revisions
Initial public reading
- 2026-10-21 Initial recorded band: emerging.