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Verification register Energy, Climate, Space & Materials

Readiness verdict

Fervo Energy Cape Station

A dated reading of what is claimed, reported, and independently verified in the current evidence.

As of
2026-06-28
Revision
1
Method
v1.0.0

Current reading

The readiness gap, in one scan

AI-assisted assembly · derived results

Claimed
82

Public ambition and stated capability

Reported
82

Observed practitioner reporting

Verified
82

Independently supported evidence

Gap
0

Claimed minus verified

Evidence strength Critical

Decision

What the current evidence supports

Human editorial judgment · 2026-06-28

Adopt with guardrails

Why
Most mature next-gen geothermal asset: real non-recourse debt ($421M), fully contracted offtake (SCE/Shell), record drilling-cost reductions (70% YoY) and flow triple Project Red; Q1 2026 results show all Phase I wells complete and a GeoBlock at mechanical completion — but headline productivity rests on a single test and grid power is not yet flowing
Next
Track Phase I first-power (Q4 2026 COD) and the ramp via GeoBlocks 2-3 (Q1 2027) as the proof point before treating 500 MW scale-up as bankable; verify sustained multi-well flow vs single-test figures and the new Gen 3.0 lateral performance

Constraints

Blockers

No named blocker is present in the current public projection.

Evidence summary

Derived counts

AI-assisted assembly

Total
7
Tier 1
0
Tier 2
3
Tier 3
4
Supports
5
Contradicts
0
Context
2
Latest observed
2026-06-22

Counts and dates only. Raw signals, private excerpts, trust records, and internal corpus material are not published here.

Publication record

Revisions

Initial public reading

This is the initial public reading. No earlier readiness change is recorded.

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