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Verification register Bio, Health & Neuro

Readiness verdict

ARCT-154 / Kostaive (self-amplifying RNA platform)

A dated reading of what is claimed, reported, and independently verified in the current evidence.

As of
2026-08-20
Revision
1
Method
v1.3.0

Current reading

Readiness band and full integer triple

AI-assisted assembly · derived results

Readiness band

Watch

Primary summary from verified readiness

Confidence
60% · stale
Computed at
2026-08-20T10:51:57.986502+00:00
Claimed
78

Public ambition and stated capability

Reported
68

Observed practitioner reporting

Verified
58

Independently supported evidence

Gap
+20

Claimed leads verified

Evidence strength Strong

Decision

What the current evidence supports

Human editorial judgment · 2026-08-20

Proceed with caution

Why
Genuinely the most mature sa-RNA technology - approved in Japan and the EU with superior 12-month antibody durability vs conventional mRNA - but a US regulatory block and weak real-world uptake mean the platform is approved yet not de-risked for broad deployment.
Next
Track real-world effectiveness/durability data and whether the FDA clinical-endpoint requirement is met; monitor EU/Japan uptake as the true adoption signal

Constraints

Blockers

No named blocker is present in the current public projection.

Evidence summary

Derived counts

AI-assisted assembly

Total
10
Tier 1
0
Tier 2
4
Tier 3
6
Supports
4
Contradicts
6
Context
0
Latest observed
2025-10-14

Counts and dates only. Raw signals, private excerpts, trust records, and internal corpus material are not published here.

Publication record

Revisions

Initial public reading

  1. 2026-07-19 Reading moved from watch to watch.

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