Comparative expertise
Quantum computing modalities
One fixed criteria frame. Every populated cell traces to one dated readiness verdict; missing evidence remains explicit.
- Data as of
- 2026-08-20
- Definition pinned
- 2026-07-16
- Revision
- 2
- Definition version
- v1.0.0
- Method
- v1.3.0
Fixed matrix
Verdict fields, side by side
AI-assisted assembly · derived results
Scope: Quantum Computing · Frontier Hardware & Quantum. No average, blend, composite, or estimate is produced.
| Criterion | Quantinuum Helios quantinuum-helios | Google Willow google-willow | QuEra 96-Logical-Qubit Neutral-Atom System quera-96-logical-qubit-neutral-atom | PsiQuantum Omega psiquantum-omega | Microsoft Majorana 2 microsoft-majorana-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verified readiness verdict.readiness.verified | 65 | 44 | 36 | 31 | 16 |
| Hype gap verdict.readiness.gap | 5 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 19 |
| Evidence strength verdict.readiness.strength | Strong | Strong | Critical | Strong | Critical |
| Recommended stance verdict.decision.answer | Track; not yet | Track; not yet | Track; not yet | Too early to adopt | Too early to adopt |
| Latest evidence verdict.evidence_summary.latest_observed_on | 2025-11-06 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-06-25 | 2026-01-30 | 2026-06-24 |
Human editorial
Synthesis and caveats
Human editorial · 2026-07-17
Synthesis
The five modalities sit at sharply different verified maturity. Quantinuum's trapped-ion Helios has been commercially available since 2025-11-05, with independently benchmarked fidelities (Sandia, peer-reviewed, reported June 2026). Google's superconducting Willow published reinforcement-learning-controlled error correction in Nature (2026-07-08), with open experimental data already re-analyzed by independent researchers. QuEra's neutral-atom 96-logical-qubit result is peer-reviewed (Nature; online 2025-11-10, version of record 2025-12-17) — an academic hardware milestone rather than a commercial product. PsiQuantum's photonic path broke ground on utility-scale facility construction (2026-06-18) — infrastructure progress, not yet compute. Microsoft's topological Majorana 2 (unveiled 2026-06-02, with claimed 20-second qubit lifetimes and a halved utility-scale timeline) remains an in-house research prototype with no independent evaluation published since. Independent reports name fault-tolerance maturity, unclear commercially valuable use cases, access costs, and talent shortages as the field's blockers. Signals suggest trapped-ion currently leads on independently verified, usable capability; superconducting and neutral-atom lead on error-correction milestones; photonic and topological remain infrastructure and research bets — a reading consistent with the matrix's verified spread (16–65) and gap pattern.
Caveats
Majorana 2 claims rest on vendor announcements; the prior timeline baseline is not stated in Microsoft's primary source. Cross-modality comparisons of qubit counts and fidelities are not like-for-like; the matrix's fixed criteria are the safer frame.
Approved by pragma.vision editorial — operator dev@soft.house · 2026-07-17